Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam txawv teb chaws tau ncaws tawm xyoo 2026 nrog lub zog zoo kawg li, xa cov "caij nplooj ntoos hlav pib" muaj zog tshaj qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev ua tau zoo no los tawm tsam qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev ua haujlwm thoob ntiaj teb, suav nrog cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw thiab hloov pauv cov qauv kev lag luam. Hauv qab no yog cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws tsom xam raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab cov kws tshaj lij kev pom.
1. Daim ntawv teev npe-Tuag pib nrog ob npaug-Txoj kev loj hlob
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam txawv teb chaws tau tshaj tawm qhov kev ua tau zoo tshwj xeeb hauv thawj ob lub hlis ntawm 2026, uas yog qhov pib muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv plaub xyoos. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm General Administration of Customs (GAC) thaum Lub Peb Hlis 10, tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam mus txog.7.73 billion yuan(kwv yees$1.12 trillion), sawv cev rau ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm18.3% -1-4.
Ua txhaum cov duab:
Kev xa tawmsurged los ntawm19.2%xyoo -rau- xyoo rau 4.62 trillion yuan
Ntshuamsawv los ntawm17.1%xyoo -rau- xyoo rau 3.11 trillion yuan -1-2
Nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas duas las, qhov kev loj hlob tau tshaj tawm, nrog rau kev xa tawm nce21.8%thiab imports nce19.8%, ua rau muaj kev lag luam ntau ntxiv ntawm$ 213.6 nphom-nce 26.2% los ntawm tib lub sijhawm hauv 2025 -3-7. Qhov kev ua tau zoo no tau tshaj li kev lag luam kwv yees thiab sawv cev rau lub xyoo siab tshaj plaws txhua hli- ntawm - xyoo kev loj hlob txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2022 -7.
Lynn Song, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam rau Tuam Tshoj Zoo Tshaj Plaws ntawm ING, tau sau tseg tias "ntau xyoo dhau los cov ntsiab lus nthuav dav tau nqa mus rau hauv 2026," nrog rau cov tshuab xa tawm tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv tsav lub zog txawm hais tias muaj kev kub ntxhov los ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam -7.
2. Kev hloov pauv ntawm tus qauv: Los ntawm ntau yam mus rau qhov zoo
Tej zaum zaj dab neeg tseem ceeb tshaj plaws tom qab tus lej xov tooj yog qhov kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm, hloov mus rau tus nqi siab dua- ntxiv cov khoom lag luam thiab kev sib sib zog nqus rau hauv cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb.
2.1 High-Tech and High-Vimue-Ntxiv cov khoom coj txoj kev
Kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv tshuab thiab hluav taws xob-ib pawg uas suav nrog cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis siab - loj hlob los ntawm24.3%xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv thawj ob lub hlis ntawm 2026, suav txog 62.6% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm -1-4. Nyob rau hauv pawg no, ntau yam khoom qhia tau tshwj xeeb kev ua tau zoo:
Integrated circuits (semiconductors): exports nce los ntawm68.9% -3
Tsheb thiab chassis: exports nce los ntawm63.1% -3
nkoj: exports loj hlob los ntawm49.7% -3
Raws li Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist ntawm Yuekai Securities, "Tuam Tshoj lub export resilience yog reshaped los ntawm ob tug tshiab piav qhia: kev ua lag luam muaj ntau haiv neeg thiab cov qauv kev kho dua tshiab. Tuam Tshoj lub export tsom xam yog maj hloov los ntawm ib txwm neeg siv khoom mus rau ib nrab - mus rau - siab - kawg nruab nrab -9.
Wang Siyu, Associate Professor ntawm Shanghai University of International Business thiab Economics, tau hais tias cov khoom nruab nrab tam sim no suav rau47.4%ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm (nce ntawm 41.9% hauv 2017), thaum cov khoom siv tau poob mus rau 28.7%. "Qhov no txhais tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj tab tom muab ntau dua rau lub ntiaj teb nrog -embed cov khoom nruab nrab xws li kev sib txuas sib txuas thiab cov khoom siv tshuab thiab hluav taws xob, uas nyuaj dua los hloov dua li cov khoom siv zaum kawg thaum lawv nkag mus rau thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam chains," nws piav qhia -6.
2.2 Ntiaj teb no AI Demand Boosts Semiconductor Exports
Ib tug tseem ceeb tsav tsheb ntawm lub export surge yog lub ntiaj teb no boom nyob rau hauv kev txawj ntse txawj ntse infrastructure peev. Luo Zhiheng tau sau tseg tias "qhov kev thov rau AI chips thiab cov khoom muaj feem cuam tshuam tau tsim lub zog tailwind rau Tuam Tshoj tus semiconductor xa tawm" -9. Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 68.9% nyob rau hauv kev sib koom ua ke xa tawm xa tawm qhia txog qhov sib txawv no, nrog rau qhov nruab nrab tus nqi xa tawm nce los ntawm 55.6% - qhia tsis yog qhov loj hlob nkaus xwb tab sis kuj nce mus rau cov nqi saw -3.
